CaskID's valuation model estimates that like-for-like whisky cask trade prices in its most recent period, 2024-2026, were 28% lower than in 2020-2023, after allowing for distillery, region, age, cask type and strength. That estimate rests on 767 recorded cask trades and auction results, 495 of them from 2024-2026. At ten years old, the model's rounded ranges for a standard hogshead run from £1,900 to £5,100 (ex-bourbon Glen Moray) up to £24,000 to £64,000 (ex-sherry Macallan).
This first edition of a quarterly report sets the starting point for a fixed basket of casks.
How like-for-like cask trade prices compare with 2020-2023
The model estimates a separate price level for each period of recorded trades, once the effect of distillery, region, age, cask type and strength has been taken out. Comparing the two most recent periods, trades in 2024-2026 sit 28% below trades in 2020-2023 on that like-for-like basis.
This is a model estimate, not an observed average or the sale price of any particular cask. The evidence is also uneven. The 2020-2023 period rests on 245 trades and 2024-2026 on 495, and regional coverage varies widely, from 250 Speyside trades to 20 from Campbeltown. Figures for thinly traded regions are less certain.
Ten-year-old cask price ranges by distillery
These are the model's rounded ranges for a standard 250-litre hogshead, filled at 63.5% ABV, with typical yearly losses, priced at exactly ten years old. The width of each range reflects the model's uncertainty.
| Region | Distillery | Ex-bourbon | Ex-sherry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speyside | Macallan | £18,000 to £50,000 | £24,000 to £64,000 |
| Speyside | Glenfarclas | £4,300 to £14,000 | £5,500 to £17,000 |
| Speyside | Glenlivet | £3,200 to £9,400 | £4,000 to £12,000 |
| Speyside | Glenrothes | £3,000 to £7,800 | £3,900 to £10,000 |
| Speyside | BenRiach | £3,000 to £7,800 | £3,800 to £10,000 |
| Speyside | Glenallachie | £2,800 to £7,300 | £3,500 to £9,300 |
| Speyside | Linkwood | £2,700 to £7,300 | £3,400 to £9,400 |
| Speyside | Craigellachie | £2,500 to £6,600 | £3,200 to £8,400 |
| Speyside | Glen Moray | £1,900 to £5,100 | £2,400 to £6,500 |
| Campbeltown | Springbank | £9,200 to £25,000 | £11,000 to £32,000 |
| Campbeltown | Glen Scotia | £3,200 to £11,000 | £4,100 to £13,000 |
| Islay | Ardbeg | £15,000 to £48,000 | £20,000 to £62,000 |
| Islay | Laphroaig | £5,700 to £16,000 | £7,400 to £21,000 |
| Islay | Bowmore | £5,400 to £15,000 | £6,900 to £20,000 |
| Islay | Kilchoman | £4,900 to £15,000 | £6,200 to £19,000 |
| Islay | Caol Ila | £4,800 to £13,000 | £6,100 to £17,000 |
| Islay | Bruichladdich | £4,800 to £13,000 | £6,200 to £16,000 |
| Islay | Bunnahabhain | £4,700 to £13,000 | £6,000 to £16,000 |
| Highland | Dalmore | £6,700 to £19,000 | £8,600 to £24,000 |
| Highland | Clynelish | £3,900 to £11,000 | £5,000 to £14,000 |
| Highland | Ben Nevis | £3,800 to £9,800 | £4,900 to £13,000 |
| Highland | Glengoyne | £3,700 to £12,000 | £4,800 to £15,000 |
| Highland | Deanston | £2,900 to £7,500 | £3,700 to £9,700 |
| Highland | Tomatin | £2,700 to £7,700 | £3,400 to £9,800 |
| Highland | Fettercairn | £2,300 to £6,100 | £2,900 to £7,800 |
| Island | Arran | £3,900 to £11,000 | £5,000 to £14,000 |
| Island | Jura | £3,700 to £9,900 | £4,700 to £13,000 |
| Island | Highland Park | £3,100 to £8,000 | £3,900 to £11,000 |
| Lowland | Auchentoshan | £3,000 to £8,200 | £3,900 to £11,000 |
| Lowland | Bladnoch | £2,100 to £5,600 | £2,700 to £7,200 |
See the Macallan, Springbank and Ardbeg pages for more detail.
How ex-sherry casks compare with ex-bourbon casks
Across 120 matched pairs, the model prices an ex-sherry cask at a median 27.9% above an ex-bourbon cask from the same distillery at the same age. That reflects how recorded trades have priced the two cask types. It does not mean an ex-sherry cask will hold or gain value better.
How each region's ten-year-old casks compare with the basket median
Against the median of all ten-year-old casks in the basket, the model places each region as follows:
- Campbeltown: 67.9% above (4 casks)
- Islay: 49.4% above (14 casks)
- Island: 3.2% below (6 casks)
- Highland: 3.9% below (14 casks)
- Speyside: 15.7% below (18 casks)
- Lowland: 28.5% below (4 casks)
Region averages hide large spreads. Speyside sits below the median overall yet contains the highest ten-year-old ranges in the table, Macallan's, alongside some of the lowest. Campbeltown and Lowland each rest on two distilleries, so one distillery moves the whole regional figure. These positions are not a ranking of which regions make better holdings, and they say nothing about future prices.
What else is happening in the whisky market
The following points come from outside sources, not from CaskID's model, and the model does not use them.
- The Scotch Whisky Association's 2025 export figures show exports down 1.8% in value and 4.3% in volume, at £5.3bn, after revision in March 2026.
- A 10% US tariff on Scotch applied from April 2025. The SWA reported that zero-tariff trade to the US was restored on 24 July 2026. This edition's data cannot show whether that has any effect on cask prices.
- UK alcohol duty rates were uprated by RPI at 3.66% from 1 February 2026.
- Producers have been cutting output. Ian Macleod Distillers cut annual production at Glengoyne and Rosebank by 30%, citing declining global demand, and Holyrood Distillery paused whisky production, with its managing director saying many distilleries are reducing or pausing production. Other distilleries were reported in September to be pausing output because of surplus stock.
How this report is built
The basket holds 240 standard casks across 30 distilleries: 250-litre hogsheads filled at 63.5% ABV, with typical yearly losses, in ex-bourbon and ex-sherry, priced at exactly 5, 10, 15 and 20 years old. CaskID's valuation model, a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on recorded cask trades and auction results and retrained as new ones come in, prices every cask.
From next quarter the same basket is re-priced at the same fixed ages. Because the casks never get older, any change reflects new trade evidence, not another year in the warehouse. Likewise, the gap between a 10-year-old and a 20-year-old price is not growth or a return: an older cask is a different cask, not the same cask after more years. The first quarter-on-quarter comparison will be published in January.
What these figures are not
The figures describe standard casks, not any reader's own cask. Real casks differ in size, fill strength, wood, regauge results and paperwork. Nothing here is a forecast, a measure of investment returns, or investment advice. Holding a cask also costs storage and insurance, and every cask loses volume each year. Before relying on any valuation, confirm who holds title to the cask. CaskID is the independent register for verifying whisky cask ownership.
For a rough range on your own cask, use the free estimate tool at /cask-estimate.
Key takeaways
- CaskID's model estimates like-for-like cask trade prices in 2024-2026 were 28% below 2020-2023, based on 767 recorded trades.
- Ex-sherry casks are priced at a median 27.9% above ex-bourbon from the same distillery and age.
- Regional figures vary widely, and Campbeltown and Lowland rest on only two distilleries each.
- These are starting prices for standard casks, not forecasts or returns. The first quarterly comparison follows in January.
Frequently asked questions
Have whisky cask prices fallen?
CaskID's model estimates that like-for-like cask trade prices in 2024-2026 were 28% lower than in 2020-2023, after allowing for distillery, region, age, cask type and strength. That is a model estimate across 767 recorded trades, not the price of any single cask.
Does an older cask in this report show how much a cask gains each year?
No. Each age is priced as a separate standard cask, so a 20-year-old price is not what a 10-year-old cask becomes. Holding a cask also brings storage and insurance costs and yearly volume loss.
Can I use these ranges to value my own cask?
Only as broad context. The ranges describe a standard hogshead at fixed ages, so your cask's size, strength, wood and history will move its value. The free tool at /cask-estimate gives a rough range for your own cask.
